Although the November 1st early admissions deadlines are behind us, most students are still awaiting their decisions and most colleges have yet to publicly announce the number of early applications they received. However, application results shared by a few top public universities including Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, plus Yale, the only top private university to share data so far, and the Common Application, offer some preliminary insight into how this year’s application numbers might trend.
Here’s what we know so far and insight into what these trends likely indicate.
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EARLY APPLICATION TRENDS: CLASS OF 2028
The University of North Carolina saw its EA volume grow by 13.6 percent, having received 43,879 EA applications this cycle. Not to be outdone, the University of Virginia notes that it, too, received a record number of early action and early decision applications for the Class of 2028. The University received 42,093 early action and early decision applications for first-year admission to the Class of 2028, marking a 3.4 percent increase from the 40,713 early applications received for the Class of 2027. Driving the increase at UVA? Clearly its out-of-state students as early applications included 10,593 Virginians and 29,334 out-of-state applicants.
The University of Georgia, which released its early action decisions for Georgia residents on November 17, received 26,760 EA applications for the Class of 2028, just a 3 percent increase over last fall’s record EA application volume. Georgia residents comprised 43 percent of the early applicants (11,500 GA residents) and 15,260 non-Georgia residents applied.
The UGA admissions team says they are expecting a larger group of total applications submitted based on the number of applications already started for RD this year. But they note admitting “somewhat more” students than last year in the in-state EA round.
Yale University saw its early action applications to the Class of 2028 increase by a more modest 1 percent to 7,866 applicants. As Yale noted in its news release, this year’s submissions mark the second-highest number of early applications in Yale’s history, behind the Class of 2025’s record-high number of 7,939 applicants. Since the class of 2023 applied five years ago, the total number of EA applicants has increased by 30 percent.
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According to the release, both international applicants and first-generation college student applicants saw disproportionate growth, consistent with past trends. Over the last five years, the number of first-generation applicants has increased by more than 100 percent, and the number of international applicants has increased by more than 150 percent. Compared to last year, the number of international applicants has increased by 6 percent and the number of first-generation applicants has increased by 3 percent.
Additional information from the Common Application’s recent deadline update provides insight into this year’s early application macro-trends, and we can look back at the last three years to see how we got to where we are today.
Although Cornell University has not released data on its ED application volume, it did make headlines this week when it announced that beginning with the Class of 2028, a smaller proportion of the incoming class will be admitted through its binding Early Decision program. Students admitted in ED for the Class of 2027 comprise 32 percent of Cornell’s current first year class. No specific target for the Class of 2028 was announced and so like you, we’ll watch and see how Cornell implements this change.
EARLY APPLICATION MACRO-TRENDS
The recent data released by the Common Application on applications submitted by November 1 provide interesting insights into this year’s application cycle. Some of the points we found most interesting (and our takeaways) include:
- 836,679 students submitted 3.3 million applications by November 1.
- On average, 4.01 applications were submitted per student.
TTA Takeaway: Hedging their bets, students are applying to more schools and making more use of the EA option.
- Applications to public members (82%) grew more than those to private members since 2019–20 (47%).
TTA Takeaway: As we can see from early data reported, UVA and UNC are two clear examples of this trend.
- Growth in applications since 2019–20 was slowest for those most selective institutions (admit rates below 25%) and highest for more selective institutions (admit rates between 50% and 74%).
TTA Takeaway: Yale’s modest 1% growth in SCEA application is in line with this larger finding from the Common App.
- This year, 50 percent of applicants reported a test score, up slightly from 48 percent last year at this time
TTA Takeaway: Apply to a top school with test-optional admissions policy? Scores continue to matter. All else being equal, students with strong SAT/ACT scores (and top AP exam scores) have a leg up on peers with similar grades and activities who don’t submit test scores.
- 68 percent of domestic students submitting early applications came from families whose income is above the national median household income.
TTA Takeaway: Cornell’s recent announcement that it will reduce the percent of the class admitted in the ED round is a reflection of the continued concern that ED advantages the wealthiest students.
- The pool of students submitting Common Applications continues to diversify, with continued growth in the numbers of underrepresented minority students, first-generation college students, and those qualifying for fee waivers.
- Just under 9 percent of applications submitted were from international applicants. The five most common home countries, in descending order of application volume, were China, India, Ghana, Nigeria, and Canada.
- And finally, out of a total of roughly 3.3 million early applications submitted, roughly 536,000 of these (13 percent) were submitted to the most selective colleges (per the Common App, those are schools with admit rates below 25 percent).
TTA Takeaway: Last year, about 14 percent of early applications were submitted to the most selective schools. This suggests that pools at top schools may, on average, only see modest growth this ED/EA cycle.
READING THE TEA LEAVES: CLASS OF 2028 EARLY APPLICATION TRENDS
So, what does all this tell us? The Common Application continues to grow its presence by adding new member colleges. Fifty new colleges were added this year, including large public universities like Rutgers (joining UT Austin and the University of Washington, among others who joined the year before) and 15 minority-servicing institutions. With more public universities now on the Common Application, it makes sense that the applications to public and less-selective colleges and universities will grow at faster rates and that the pool of students using the Common Application is becoming more diverse each year. The Common Application’s new direct admissions initiative seeks to increase college-going rates for lower-income and first generation students; last year, nearly 30,000 students were offered to 14 participating colleges.
We can also see in the Common App data that the number of early applications submitted to the most selective institutions by November 1 grew by six percent this year, meaning most top schools are likely to see small early application increases. Likely driving this growth? Applications from international and first-generation college students. While the Common Application data helps us understand some macro trends, it’s also interesting to look at specific data from top schools for the past three early application cycles to see how application volume has changed.
Early application volume for the Class of 2027 was a bit more of a mixed bag – up slightly at some schools, down slightly at others. The chart above shows more modest increases and decreases at top schools. Prospective students likely got the message that a “Hail Mary” test-optional application to top schools was not a smart early strategy. Of note, MIT, which reinstated testing as a requirement, saw early applications to the Class of 2027 fall by 19 percent.
For now, the tea leaves suggest a more competitive early admission cycle at top schools. As more data on early applications for the Class of 2028 becomes available, we’ll update our charts and add our expert analysis.
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In addition, Maria is proud of her long-term volunteer work with Opera North (Lebanon, NH) in fundraising, marketing and audience engagement. She is an avid masters rower with the Upper Valley Rowing Foundation (Hanover, NH) and also serves as a member of its board of directors.
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