Reading the Tea Leaves: Early Application Trends

Although the November 1^st early admissions deadlines are behind us, most colleges have yet to publicly announce updates on the number of early applications they received. Application results shared by two top universities—the University of Georgia and Yale University—offer some preliminary insight into how this year’s application numbers might trend.

Here’s what we know so far and insight into what these trends likely indicate.

EARLY APPLICATION TRENDS: CLASS OF 2027

The University of Georgia, which released its early action decisions on November 18, received just over 26,000 EA applications for the Class of 2027, a hefty 21 percent increase over last fall’s EA application volume. Georgia residents comprised 40 percent of the early applicants (10,500 GA residents) and 15,500 non-Georgia residents applied (60 percent of EA total). Looking at EA applicant numbers for the Class of 2026, it’s clear that non-Georgia residents are driving the growth in EA volume.

The UGA admissions team is already expecting a larger group of total applications submitted based on the number of applications already started for RD this year. Because of this, they have taken a slightly more cautious approach with their EA admits, accepting about 7 percent fewer students than last year.

Yale University saw its early action applications to the Class of 2027 increase by a more modest 6 percent to 7,777 applicants. As Yale noted in its news release, this year’s submissions mark the second-highest number of early applications in Yale’s history, behind the Class of 2025’s record-high number of 7,939 applicants. Compared to the Class of 2024, however, the early action pool is an eye-popping 35 percent larger.

The news release goes on to note that, while that growth is generally consistent across demographics categories, the Office of Undergraduate Admissions noted a modest increase of about 6 percent in students who identify as a member of an underrepresented racial or ethnic group, students who would be the first in their families to attend college and international applicants.

Additional information from the Common Application’s recent deadline update provides insight into this year’s early application macro-trends, and we can look back at the last three years to see how we got to where we are today.

Essay Guidance

Get our expert guidance on your college essays.

LEARN MORE

EARLY APPLICATION MACRO-TRENDS

Here are some interesting data points provided by the Common Application:

748,118 students submitted 2.8 million applications by November 1.
On average, 3.8 applications were submitted per student.
61 percent of domestic students submitting early applications came from ZIP codes in the top income quintile.
The pool of students submitting Common Applications continues to diversify, with continued growth in the numbers of underrepresented minority students, first-generation college students, and those qualifying for fee waivers.
Just under 9 percent of applications submitted were from international applicants. The five most common home countries, in descending order of application volume, were China, India, Nigeria, Ghana, and Canada.
This year, only 48 percent of students self-reported test scores, down slightly from 51 percent last year.
Applications to public universities (55 percent) outpace those to private colleges and universities (45 percent).

And finally, out of a total of roughly 2.8 million early applications submitted, just under 400,000 early applications (or nearly 14 percent) were submitted to the most selective colleges (per the Common App, those are schools with admit rates below 25 percent).

READING THE TEA LEAVES: CLASS OF 2027 EARLY APPLICATION TRENDS

So, what does all this tell us? The Common Application continues to grow its presence by adding new member colleges. Seventy new colleges were added this year, including large public universities like UT Austin, Texas A&M, and the University of Washington and 20 minority-servicing institutions. It makes sense that the applications to public and less-selective colleges and universities will grow at faster rates and that the pool of students using the Common Application is becoming more diverse each year.

We can also see in the Common App data that the number of early applications submitted to the most selective institutions by November 1 grew by 12 percent this year, meaning most top schools are likely to see small early application increases. Students, this means you will experience a more competitive early round. While the Common Application data helps us understand some macro trends, it’s also interesting to look at specific data from top schools for the past three early application cycles to see how application volume has changed.

The chart above shows, without a doubt, how pandemic-era test-optional admissions policies led to a spike in early applications submitted to all top colleges for the Class of 2025. Early application volume for the Class of 2026 was a bit more of a mixed bag – up slightly at some schools, down slightly at others. The chart below shows that in terms of percentage, the most dramatic increases came at schools like Brown, Northeastern (ED program), Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, and Virginia (ED program), and schools like Harvard, Yale, and Duke had notable decreases in early volume. Prospective students likely got the message that a “Hail Mary” test-optional application to top schools was not a smart early strategy.

For now, the tea leaves suggest a more competitive early admission cycle at top schools. As more data on early applications for the Class of 2027 becomes available, we’ll update our charts and add our expert analysis.

Author
Recent Posts

Maria Laskaris

Senior Private Counselor at Top Tier Admissions

Maria Laskaris joins Top Tier Admissions as one of the most experienced admissions deans in the country. She graduated from Dartmouth College in 1984, and served as Director of Admissions at Dartmouth for over a decade where she evaluated tens of thousands of applicants. From 2007-2015 she served as the Dean of Admissions and Financial Aid at Dartmouth, overseeing all facets of the admissions and financial aid processes. She played an integral role in developing key enhancements to the Common Application, serving on the 14-member Board of Directors. With over 25 years of admissions experience at one of the most selective colleges in the country, she provides an insider’s perspective like no other, with deep knowledge of selective college admissions.

In addition, Maria is proud of her long-term volunteer work with Opera North (Lebanon, NH) in fundraising, marketing and audience engagement. She is an avid masters rower with the Upper Valley Rowing Foundation (Hanover, NH) and also serves as a member of its board of directors.

Latest posts by Maria Laskaris (see all)